Welcome to our quarterly investment overview
As promised, I am providing you with our quarterly update. The emphasis isn’t anchored too much on what has happened, more on how we believe monetary policy, economies and markets may unfold.
Predictions are not our bag and those investment houses that fell into this trap were generally proved to be wide of the mark last year. For us at Blue Sky, it’s understanding the dynamics, working out how to respond and choosing, wherever possible, the right asset classes at the right stage of the economic cycle.
This Quarterly Update had been written with the backdrop of falling inflation and falling mortgage rates in mind. Despite deteriorating geopolitical news, investment market sentiment has become more upbeat. But we are acutely aware that deteriorating company earnings may dampen investor sentiment in the first half of 2024, and we are also cognisant of the potential for nasty short sharp shocks arising from conflicts.
It’s interesting how quickly sentiment can change, and this is highlighted with the latest forecasts on the housing market from property agent Knight Frank. It was only in October last year that they were predicting property prices would fall by 4%. Just three months on they are now forecasting that property prices in the UK will rise by 3%. All due to a significant drop in mortgage rates.
This week’s agenda:
Recession or soft landing?
Late cycle challenges
The path for interest rates
Good news for Bonds
What is the outlook for equities?
Possible election impacts
Enticing themes and opportunities
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Our CEO, Gary Neild, writes an engaging Market Commentaries every week. If you would like to receive the full version straight to your inbox every Friday, please join our communications list.
Please Note: This communication should not be read as giving specific advice regarding your personal circumstances. This would only be given following detailed assessment of your individual needs. The value of investments may fall as well as rise; you may get back less than invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns.