Making sense of this crazy world
Interest rates on stop or pause?
Both the UK and the US have kept interest rates on hold, albeit with split votes, which has been interpreted as mixed messages. The Bond market appears to be doing some of the heavy lifting instead, with longer-dated yields rising.
Not helping the picture is the on/off conflict in Iran and, no surprise, once again, missiles are being fired from both sides. The oil price responded accordingly, surging 8% with equity markets pulled back.
Do you remember Donald Trump’s Board of Peace? Well, apparently it does have some teeth because it’s struck a deal with Hamas in Gaza for them to disarm fully. It is subject to Israel withdrawing its forces from the territory. Highly unlikely, I would say.
Tech stocks have been badly hit again, but having officially moved into correction territory, there are surely some fantastic opportunities. Over the last couple of years, we have seen significant sell-offs in the tech sector, before seeing stocks fire up again. We think this could be replicated again. Perhaps the start of the turnaround was yesterday with the Nasdaq Composite rising by 2.78%.
The large banks have been reporting, and they have posted outstanding numbers, boosting the performance of the FTSE 100. The FTSE 100 hit an annual all-time high this week, helped by financials, the oil price and commodities in general, reinforcing our decision to favour the large cap index over more domestically orientated stocks. The FTSE 100 is seen as an alternative play to technology stocks with very little exposure within the index.
This week’s content:
- The Bank of England in ‘wait & see’ mode
- A sloppy hold
- Bond market backlash
- Tech stocks hit correction territory
- Banks pass the test
- FTSE 100 reaches record high
- Conclusion
The Bank of England in ‘wait & see’ mode
UK interest rates remained on hold for the fifth consecutive time. It wasn’t unanimous though, with three members voting for an increase and six voted to keep rates unchanged.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said “while inflation is expected to rise due to higher energy prices and there is a risk of material second-round effects, there is little evidence to suggest such effects yet, and there have continued to be clear signs of underlying disinflation in recent data”.
The Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, noted “Holding the bank rate is appropriate as global conditions look to be more uncertain and inflationary, while domestic conditions are, on balance, more benign as regards the prospects for inflation”.
Ed Hutchins, Head of Rates at Aviva Investors, commented “we expect the MPC will want to remain in wait and see mode to assess developments in the Middle East” (source: Investment Week).
Continues…
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