Dazed and confused
This probably sums up how most of us are feeling at the moment. This was a headline on Bloomberg on Wednesday and captures the mood well.
Watching the news is intriguing, at times mesmerising, unbelievable and sometimes, unpalatable. Emotions are being stirred and it’s almost impossible to have a gathering of a few people without the conversation lurching towards Trump and his activities at some point. There are certainly many who, whilst not liking Trump personally, find his mantra and his commitment to getting things done refreshing.
Trump has a macro game plan but there is no doubt that his ‘flip flopping’ of rhetoric and short-term statement reversals are confusing. Whilst in some ways it’s captivating, of course we want to know the latest comments so when we get in our groups, we can have an opinion about what’s going on. If, however, we look at our investment and pension valuations in tandem, then the upshot is likely to be heightened anxiety. So, my advice in times like this is to ration your news intake and only look at your portfolios once a week or once a month.
Of course, there are always winners and losers, and it is largely previously unloved assets which have been the most resilient.
The uncertainty has been exaggerated in some quarters by traders and market makers shorting stocks. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have certainly bore the brunt and have entered correction territory. Our opinion is that now, is not the time to sell these indices. Goldman Sachs this week, have forecasted that the S&P 500 will be circa 11% higher by the end of 2025 but they also state that other markets may present better opportunities, reinforcing the need for diversification, which we’ve spoken about many times.
On today’s agenda:
- Trump’s game
- News flow
- The winners and losers
- Europe’s surprise
- Goldman’s forecast
- US inflation eases
- Summary
Trump’s game
Trump has previously quoted market gains as an indication of how successful he was when he was last President. Now he says he’s not concerned by the markets, nor the extent of the sell off. “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down” he said this week. The truth is, he is bothered.
Continues…
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Risk warning
Please Note: This communication should not be read as giving specific advice regarding your personal circumstances. This would only be given following detailed assessment of your individual needs. The value of investments may fall as well as rise; you may get back less than invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns.